Update BasGoed baseyear 2018

In cooperation with the national Freight Transport Alliance Significance has worked on a substantial data improvement, shifting the base year of the BasGoed transport model from 2014 to 2018. Up-to-date and accurate input data are vital in order to make high quality freight transport forecasts. The base year update was performed in 2021 and 2022.

BasGoed started out as a basic freight transport model, satisfying the basic needs for policy making. The BasGoed model is owned and managed by Rijkswaterstaat (Ministery of Infrastructure and Water management) and is used as the main instrument for creating freight transport forecasts for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 and varying economic scenarios.

The goal of this project was to update the entire model system to baseyear 2018. The model was updated by using recent freight transport and economic data. The cost figures for rail, road and inland waterways are also updated to 2018. The model was fully recalibrated based on the new data. The choice models (logit models) have been re-estimated and the scenario assumptions that are used in BasGoed are adjusted to remain consistent with the new baseyear.

In the update Significance was responsible for new Level-of-Service (transport distances and times) of rail transport; the economic data in BasGoed; the full recalibration of all choice models within BasGoed; adjustment of the scenario indicators and partially responsible for testing and analysing the outcomes of the new version of BasGoed. The main goal of this analysis was to keep track of forecast changes induced by the update of the base year of BasGoed.

BasGoed consists of different modules and consecutively calculates the following:
– The amount of freight that is produced and consumed in The Netherlands (economy module)
– The linkage between where things are produced and where they are consumed (distribution module)
– Which modes are used to transport this freight (modal split module)
– Which multimodal chains are chosen for container transport (container chain module)
– How many trips for road transport are needed to transport the freight (road transport module)
– A forecast for sea transport volumes including a ship type choice (sea transport module)

Choice models are used for the modal split choices, the choice of vehicle types and (multimodal) container chain choice. The choice models are based on utility maximization framework in the discrete choice theory.

In this project there was special attention for adopting realistic transport time for train transport. This version uses more realistic operational speeds and border delays. The modal split choice model has been improved by applying the logic that trains and barge transport typically are more attractive alternatives at high volumer routes.

BasGoed is used to periodically to create new freight transport base scenarios for The Netherlands. These base scenarios are used in traffic and transport studies and projects. For example BasGoed is used to study the effects of road pricing for freight transport. And BasGoed is also used for the freight transport analyses within the Integral Mobility Analysis (IMA) of 2021, a large national mobility analysis of The Netherlands.