The Dutch Ministry of Finance has commissioned Significance and research institute CE Delft to determine the effects of an aviation tax. The study reveals that the tax has a limited positive effect on the prosperity, the economy and the climate.
In the study Significance has calculated the effects on the passengers, airports, environment and emissions. Due to capacity restrictions the aviation tax does not result in less flights but in shifts between market segments (passengers/freight, OD/transfer, European/intercontinental destinations). Therefore there are only small effects of an aviation tax on the CO2, noise and particulates emissions.
The report of Significance can be found here (Dutch only) and the report of the economic and sustainability of the aviation tax can be found here (Dutch only).